@PhDThesis{Santos:2017:CaObCe,
author = "Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos",
title = "Eventos extremos de descargas atmosf{\'e}ricas no estado de
S{\~a}o Paulo: casos observados e cen{\'a}rios futuros",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2017",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2017-06-09",
keywords = "descarga atmosf{\'e}rica nuvem-solo, mecanismos
din{\^a}mico-clim{\'a}ticos, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras,
S{\~a}o Paulo, cloud-to-ground lightning, dynamic-climatic
mechanisms, climatic projections, S{\~a}o Paulo.",
abstract = "O estudo de rel{\^a}mpagos {\'e} um tema que vem ganhando
significativa aten{\c{c}}{\~a}o no meio cient{\'{\i}}fico,
pois a partir do monitoramento de per{\'{\i}}odos de maior
incid{\^e}ncia de descargas {\'e} poss{\'{\i}}vel emitir
alertas de caracter{\'{\i}}sticas como intensidade,
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o e severidade de tempestades, permitindo que
medidas preventivas sejam tomadas, para minimizar impactos
causados por fen{\^o}menos de tempo severo. Desta forma, este
trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir com o estudo das descargas
atmosf{\'e}ricas no Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo, por meio da
identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos eventos extremos em m{\'u}ltiplas
escalas de tempo, e da an{\'a}lise dos mecanismos din{\^a}micos
de grande escala associados, al{\'e}m da proje{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
cen{\'a}rios futuros deste fen{\^o}meno. Para a an{\'a}lise do
clima atual, foram utilizados dados das redes de
detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de descargas atmosf{\'e}ricas RINDAT e
BrasilDAT, compreendendo o per{\'{\i}}odo 1999 a 2014, al{\'e}m
de dados de rean{\'a}lise da National Oceanic \& Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) e dos National Centers for Environmental
Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR).
Para a an{\'a}lise do clima futuro, foram utilizados dados de
dois robustos modelos globais: HadGEM2-ES e CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Os
resultados mostraram que h{\'a} uma maior
concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de descargas sobre o centro-leste do
Estado, com m{\'a}ximos sobre a regi{\~a}o metropolitana de
S{\~a}o Paulo. De modo geral, observou-se que a frequ{\^e}ncia
dos eventos extremos deste fen{\^o}meno vem aumentando nos
{\'u}ltimos anos, com aproximadamente 60\% dos casos entre os
anos de 2009 a 2014. Constatou-se que, para o per{\'{\i}}odo de
1999 a 2014, a incid{\^e}ncia de descargas est{\'a} associada a
padr{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticos conectando a regi{\~a}o tropical e
extratropical, atrav{\'e}s de um trem de onda, com origem no
Oceano {\'{\I}}ndico at{\'e} a Am{\'e}rica do Sul, favorecendo
a forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o e o desenvolvimento de nuvens de
tempestades convectivas sobre o Sudeste do Brasil. Na an{\'a}lise
das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras verificou-se que, enquanto em
grande parte da s{\'e}rie de dados observados de descargas
ocorreram eventos anomalamente abaixo da m{\'e}dia, o clima
futuro revela a preponder{\^a}ncia de eventos anomalamente acima
da m{\'e}dia, tanto no cen{\'a}rio de baixas emiss{\~o}es como
no cen{\'a}rio de altas emiss{\~o}es, sugerindo uma
mudan{\c{c}}a no padr{\~a}o de incid{\^e}ncia de descargas
atmosf{\'e}ricas no Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo. ABSTRACT: The study
of lightning is a topic that has gained significant attention in
the scientific world, since from the monitoring of periods of
higher incidence of lightning it is possible to issue warning of
characteristics such as intensity, duration and severity of
storms, allowing preventive measures to be taken, to minimize
impacts caused by severe weather phenomena. In this way, this work
aims to contribute to the study of lightning in the State of
S{\~a}o Paulo, through the identification of extreme events at
multiple time scales, and the analysis of the associated large
scale dynamic mechanisms, as well as the projection of futures
scenarios of this phenomenon. For the current climate analysis,
data from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT lightning detection networks
were used, comprising the period from 1999 to 2014, in addition to
data from the reanalysis of the National Oceanic \& Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and National Centers for Environmental
Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR).
For the analysis of the future climate, we used data from two
robust global models: HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. The results
showed that there is a greater concentration of lightning on the
center-east of the State, with maximums on the metropolitan region
of S{\~a}o Paulo. In general, it has been observed that the
frequency of extreme events of this phenomenon has increased in
the last years, with approximately 60\% of the cases between the
years of 2009 to 2014. It was found that, for the period from 1999
to 2014, the lightning incidence was associated with climatic
patterns connecting the tropical and extratropical region, through
a wave train, from the Indian Ocean to South America, favoring the
formation and development of convective storms over Southeast
Brazil. In the analysis of the future projections, it was observed
that, while during a large portion of the current climate we
observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate
reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events,
both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions and in the
scenario of high emissions, suggesting a change in the pattern of
the lightning incidence in the State of S{\~a}o Paulo.",
committee = "Alval{\'a}, Plinio Carlos (presidente) and Pinto Junior, Osmar
(orientador) and Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de (orientador) and
Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Saraiva, Gisele dos Santos
Zepka and Sim{\~o}es, S{\'{\i}}lvio Jorge Coelho",
englishtitle = "Extreme events of lightning in the state of S{\~a}o Paulo:
observed cases and future scenarios",
language = "pt",
pages = "221",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P3EE7S",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P3EE7S",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}